Anticosti Island, in the Bay of Saint Lawrence, is 138 miles long and 35 miles wide. In round numbers it is home to 100,000 whitetails and has been a popular hunting destination for thousands of sportsmen from northern New England and New York, many returning several times for the adventure of hunting this unique whitetail refuge with its excellent outfitters and two deer bag limit. For those familiar the island the buzz these last two years has been the devastating 2002-2003 winter during which an estimated 40% of the total herd perished. Hunters like Pat McCormick from East Montpelier who spent 5 days at Safari Anticosti during the fall of 2003 saw the physical evidence of the previous winter.

Pat explained, "There were days when we saw a lot of deer carcasses particularly on the interior of the territory away from the coast, but what struck us was the lack of physical sightings."

Pat's experience was by no means unique and that season's deer harvest was one of the lowest in recent memory.

With so much discussion, particularly here in Vermont about managing deer populations, Anticosti may offer some insight about the tenacity of whitetails to rebound as well as a perspective on the cyclical nature of any wild resource. Case in point; this past season produced near average kill numbers and in many parts of the island a higher than average buck kill. One season removed and near full recovery, how is that possible?

No one knows the answer any better than the outfitters whose livelihood hangs in balance with the island's weather and whitetails. In interviews with Sepaq, Cerf Sau and Safari Anticosti, the three predominant outfitting operations, there were consistencies as well as unique observations regarding winter kill and recovery.

All three agreed on the severity of the 2002-2003 winter however, they also agreed that things are not always as they seem. For instance, the number of deer that perished that year and the notion of hunters that there were few deer left in the bush are not directly correlated. The island's average whitetail population is around 100,000 animals if mortality was 40% that would mean 40,000 deer perished however of those, the overwhelming majority were yearling females most of which would have been impregnated. Of the does that did survive it is a biological fact that during severe winter conditions deer actually absorb or abort their fetuses as a natural means of survival. The result? The spring of 2003 fawn crop was almost non-existent in some areas of the island. While this in itself is going to mean less deer for hunters to see it really is only half of the story. Does that have fawns at their sides are far more visible than those that are barren. Fawns are high maintenance and the protective nature of does results in considerable activity. Does without offspring however, are as elusive as their male counterparts and so the condition of few deer being seen during that first fall hunt was compounded.

Jean Gagnon of Safari Anticosti articulated this fact, "does with fawns are 10 times more likely to be seen than does without. They remain in the bush and behave more like bucks."

Another area of consensus among outfitters was the fact that going into the winter of 2002 there was an overpopulation of whitetails and that body weights and fat reserves were down. All three of these outfitters keep very detailed records of kill statistics each season and all reported that body weights were off 15 to 20 pounds. While harvests were up substantially in the two preceding hunting seasons, the total deer population was pushing the edge of the envelope when it comes to the environment's capacity to sustain that number of deer.

Sepaq guide Pierre LaRose also noted that the weather in September of 2003 was also very unusual. "We had the warmest most humid conditions I had ever seen on the island."

South winds bringing in lots of moisture coupled with temperatures in the 80's & 90's resulted in a change in normal feeding patterns.

"We were not seeing or shooting as many deer in the early part of the fall but those that we did shoot had stomachs full of mushrooms." These weather conditions were ideal for their growth but of course mushrooms require very dark conditions in addition to the humidity. "When we analyzed this and came to the conclusion that this food source was only available in the darkest, most dense areas of the forest we had another clue as to where the deer were."

The hunting on Anticosti this coming fall is anticipated to be as good as ever after only two seasons and in fact, it was very good last fall. Guy LeFebver, owner of Cerf Sau located on Anticosti's south shore an area known for consistently producing some of the best bucks, points out that it is all in the numbers.

"If you have 100,000 whitetails and 40% winter kill then your herd is down to 60,000. However majority of those deer are does capable of at least one if not two offspring per season. Although the fawn crop of 2003 was below average, last spring's was better than average. Conservatively, 40,000 - 50,000 deer have been added to the herd in the last two years, more than off-setting the winter kill numbers."

One thing that we do know is that last year Anticosti's buck kill was up and the deer were healthier, heavier with better antler development demonstrating the whitetail's known resiliency.

There may be few direct correlations between Vermont and Anticosti however respecting short term natural cycles my help us keep our perceptions in perspective.